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The Sharp Slowdown in Year-over-year House Price Growth


Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The Sharp Slowdown in Year-over-year House Price Growth

Excerpt: And Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow Research: June 2022 Case-Shiller Results & Forecast: Moving Towards Rebalance

The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be 15.9% in July. This would the lowest year-over-year increase since April 2021. This Case-Shiller National index was up 20.6% YoY in April, 19.9% in May, 18.0% in June, and Zillow is forecasting 15.9% in July. This is a sharp slowdown in YoY price increases.

For the most part, this deceleration was before the most recent rate increases (current 30-year mortgage rates are at 6.25%). Whether this means prices will stall on a national basis or decline something like 5% to 10% remains to be seen. It is clear there will be some double-digit regional declines, but I don’t expect cascading price declines this time since lending standards have been reasonably solid.

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