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Q3 GDP Tracking: Just Over 1%


From BofA: We updated our 3Q US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) [1.1% q/q saar] tracking estimate from July trade data, where the narrowing of the trade deficit to $70.6bn was broadly in line with our expectation, although the goods deficit was revised slightly higher from the advance estimate. Net trade is poised to make a substantial contribution to growth in 3Q. [September 9th estimate]
emphasis addedFrom Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.1% (qoq ar). [September 9th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on September 9, down from 1.4 percent on September 7. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -5.8 percent to -6.1 percent. [September 9th estimate]

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