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Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 1% to 2%


From BofA: Overall, today’s higher than expected personal income and outlays and durable goods print along with the wider than expected advance goods trade deficit decreased our 2Q US GDP tracking from 1.1% q/q saar to 0.9% q/q saar. [May 26th estimate]
emphasis addedFrom Goldman: Personal income increased as expected and personal spending increased by more than expected in April. … Both headline and core durable goods orders increased against consensus expectations for declines. The goods trade deficit widened significantly more than expected in April, driven by a large decline in exports and a more modest rise in imports. We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.1% (qoq ar). [May 26th estimate]And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2023 is 1.9 percent on May 26, down from 2.9 percent on May 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, decreases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real net exports and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth were partially offset by increases in the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real government spending growth. [May 26th estimate]

Personal Income increased 0.4% in April; Spending increased 0.8%

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