The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:
Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).
The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in November and real PCE increased less than 0.1 percent; goods decreased 0.6 percent and services increased 0.3 percent.
emphasis addedThe November PCE price index increased 5.5 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 6.1 percent YoY in October.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2022 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was above expectations, and the increase in PCE was below expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 4.0% annual rate in Q3 2022. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 3.0%)