Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: November Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction
Excerpt: Possibly Important: Note the sharp decline in multi-family permits in November. This has been averaging close to 650,000 SAAR over the last 8 months and declined to 509,000 in November from 620,000 in October. This is a possible signal that the expected decline in multi-family starts will happen soon (although permits aren’t a perfect leading indicator for starts).
The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
Red is single family units. Currently there are 777 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous seven months, and 51 thousand below the recent peak in April and May. Single family units under construction have peaked since single family starts are now declining. The reason there are so many homes under construction is probably due to supply constraints.
Blue is for 2+ units. Currently there are 932 thousand multi-family units under construction. This is the highest level since December 1973! For multi-family, construction delays are probably also a factor. The completion of these units should help with rent pressure.
Combined, there are 1.709 million units under construction. This ties last month as the all-time record number of units under construction.
Multi-family starts will likely slow soon due to a combination of less rent growth and higher interest rates. We are already seeing a slowdown in design for multi-family.There is much more in the post. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/