New Home Sales Increase to 683,000 Annual Rate in March; Likely New Home Sales will be up YoY in Mid-2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Increase to 683,000 Annual Rate in March

Brief excerpt: The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in March 2023 were down 3.4% from March 2022.

It seems likely that new home sales will be up year-over-year sometime in the next few months.
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As previously discussed, the Census Bureau overestimates sales, and underestimates inventory when cancellation rates are rising, see: New Home Sales and Cancellations: Net vs Gross Sales. This has reversed now since cancellation rates have started to decline. When a previously cancelled home is resold, the home builder counts it as a sale, but the Census Bureau does not (since it was already counted).

There are still a large number of homes under construction, and this suggests we might see a further increase in completed inventory over the next several months, but in general, this is a positive report for new home sales. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/.