Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.30 million SAAR in May; Median Prices Declined 3.1% YoY
Excerpt: On prices, the NAR reported: The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $396,100, a decline of 3.1% from May 2022 ($408,600). Prices grew in the Northeast and Midwest but fell in the South and West.Median prices are distorted by the mix (repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices).
The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and prices are now down 3.1% YoY. Median house prices increased 2.6% from April to May and are down 4.3% from the peak in June 2022 (NSA).
It is likely the Case-Shiller index will be down soon year-over-year.
Note that closed sales in May were mostly for contracts signed in March and April. Mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, average around 6.4% in March and April. June sales will be for contracts signed in April and May, when mortgage rates also averaged around 6.4%, so closed sales will likely be similar in June compared to May.
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