Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.81 million SAAR in July
Excerpt: ales in July (4.81 million SAAR) were down 5.9% from the previous month and were 20.2% below the July 2021 sales rate. Sales are now below pre-pandemic levels and, excluding the pandemic decline, sales are the lowest level since 2014.
The third graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), for a few selected periods. Black and light Purple are the maximum sales per month during the bubble (2005) and the minimum sales during the bust (2008 – 2011). The most recent four years are shown (2019 through 2022).
This decrease, NSA, was similar to change in the markets I track each month.
Key point on Timing of Sales
Existing home sales are reported when the transaction closes. Sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in June and July. Recent data shows a significant slowdown in activity starting in May and decelerating further in June.
My sense is contracts for sales really declined in June, and that will show up as closed sales in July and August – so we should expect a further decline in existing home sales next month.There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/ (Most content is available for free, so please subscribe).