Moody’s: Multifamily Demand “Softened notably over the past few quarters”

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody’s: Multifamily Demand “Softened notably over the past few quarters”

A brief excerpt: The big story here is that demand for apartments has softened recently, rents are falling in some areas, and there are a large number of apartments currently under construction that are expected to be delivered this year.

From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen and economist Nick Luettke: Apartment temporarily oversupplied, Office approaching peak of vacancy, and Retail remained flatThe tide has been gradually shifting for the multifamily sector. … Multifamily demand has softened notably over the past few quarters with net absorption even teasing slightly below zero in the first quarter of 2023. … Vacancy ticked up 13 basis-point (bps) to end Q1 at 4.71%. This was the biggest jump over the past two years, which pushed the current vacancy over the pre-pandemic level of 4.68%.

Compared to year end 2022, rent declines became more widespread in the first quarter, with 60 primary metros recording negative market rent growth ranging from -0.1% to -6.4%. …Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q1 2023, up from 4.6% in Q4 2022, and down from a pandemic peak of 5.4% in both Q1 and Q2 2021.

This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999).  Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities.There is more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/