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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

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From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.4 percent from one week
earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications
Survey for the week ending June 30, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth
holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.4 percent on
a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6
percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous
week and was 30 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent
compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level in a month last week as rates for most loan types
increased. As mortgage-Treasury spreads remained wide, the 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.85
percent, the highest rate since the end of May,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief
Economist. “Purchase applications decreased for the first time in a month, as homebuyers remained
sensitive to rate changes. Rates are still over a percentage point higher than a year ago, and housing
affordability is still a challenge in many parts of the country. However, the average loan size for a
purchase application declined to $423,500 – its lowest level since January 2023. This was likely driven by
reduced purchase activity in some high-price markets and more activity in some of the lower price tiers as
buyers searched for more affordable options.”

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances
($726,200 or less) increased to 6.85 percent from 6.75 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.64
(including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 22% year-over-year unadjusted.  

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  This is at the lowest level since May and close to the lowest level since the mid-’90s!

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022 – and has mostly flat lined at a low level since then.

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