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Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years (usually inventory is declining sharply at this time of year):
2022: -2.2K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory)
2021: -13.0K
2020: -13.4K
2019: -20.7K
Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 138% since then. Altos reports inventory is down 0.4% week-over-week.
Click on graph for larger image.
This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of November 4th, inventory was at 575 thousand (7-day average), compared to 577 thousand the prior week.
Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 43.5% from 401 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 8.5% from 530 thousand. Compared to 3 years ago (2019), inventory is down 36.0% from 898 thousand.
Here are the inventory milestones I’ve been watching for with the Altos data:
1. The seasonal bottom (happened on March 4, 2022, for Altos) ✅
2. Inventory up year-over-year (happened on May 20, 2022, for Altos) ✅
3. Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅
4. Inventory up compared to 2019 (currently down 36.0%).
Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4).
The blue line is the year-over-year data, the red line is compared to two years ago, and dashed purple is compared to 2019.
A key will be if inventory declines slowly during the winter months.
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
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