FOMC Projections and Press Conference

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections. In June, most participants expected thirteen 25bp rate hikes in 2022. The FOMC raised rates 25 bp in March, 50 bp in May, 75 bp in June, 75 bp in July and 75 bp in September. That is twelve 25 bp increases so far, and the Fed expects rates to rise another 150 bp. So, it now appears the FOMC is expecting eighteen 25bp rate hikes this year.

Wall Street forecasts have been revised down further since June due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and financial tightening. The FOMC also lowered their 2022 and 2023 projections down significantly.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1Projection Date202220232024Sept 20220.1 to 0.30.5 to 1.51.4 to 2.0June 20221.5 to 1.91.3 to 2.01.5 to 2.01 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in August. The FOMC increased their projections for the unemployment rate for Q4 2022. And are now projecting an employment recession in 2023.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2Projection Date202220232024Sept 20223.8 to 3.94.1 to 4.54.0 to 4.6June 20223.6 to 3.83.8 to 4.13.9 to 4.1 2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from July 2021. The FOMC revised up their inflation projections for 2022.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1Projection Date202220232024Sept 20225.3 to 5.72.6 to 3.52.1 to 2.6June 20225.0 to 5.32.4 to 3.02.0 to 2.5
PCE core inflation was up 4.6% in July year-over-year. And the FOMC revised up their projections.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date202220232024Sept 20224.4 to 4.63.0 to 3.42.2 to 2.5June 20224.2 to 4.52.5 to 3.22.1 to 2.5