FOMC Projections and Press Conference

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections. In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was 5.125%. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now somewhat above 5.125%.

Current Wall Street GDP tracking estimates show decent growth in Q1 (although there is a wide range of estimates). GDP projections for 2023 were revised down, contrary to recent data.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1Projection Date202320242025Mar 20230.0 to 0.81.0 to 1.51.7 to 2.1 Dec 20220.4 to 1.01.3 to 2.01.6 to 2.01 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in February, just above the 50-year low. The FOMC revised down slightly their projected unemployment rate for Q4 2023.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2Projection Date202320242025Mar 20234.0 to 4.74.3 to 4.94.3 to 4.8Dec 20224.4 to 4.74.3 to 4.84.0 to 4.72 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of January 2023, PCE inflation was up 5.4% year-over-year from January 2022, and, in general, inflation has been close to expectations. However, after accounting for the unusual dynamics related to the pandemic, inflation is likely lower than expected. The FOMC revised up their PCE inflation projections.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1Projection Date202320242025Mar 20233.0 to 3.82.2 to 2.82.0 to 2.2Dec 20222.9 to 3.52.3 to 2.72.0 to 2.2
PCE core inflation was up 4.7% in January year-over-year. The FOMC revised up their core PCE projections.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date202320242025Mar 20233.5 to 3.92.3 to 2.82.0 to 2.2Dec 20223.2 to 3.72.3 to 2.72.0 to 2.2