Here are the projections. In November, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate 5.125% (a range of 5.0-5.25%). The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now closer to 5.25%.
The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in November. So far, the economic slowdown has barely pushed up the unemployment rate, and the FOMC revised down the 2022 projection but revised 2023 up.
As of October 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.0% from October 2021. This was below the cycle high of 7.0% YoY in June. The FOMC revised up PCE inflation for 2022.
PCE core inflation was up 5.0% in October year-over-year. This was below the cycle high of 5.4% YoY in February. Core inflation has picked up more than expected and the FOMC revised up their projections.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date2022202320242025Dec 20224.7 to 4.83.2 to 3.72.3 to 2.72.0 to 2.2Sept 20224.4 to 4.63.0 to 3.42.2 to 2.52.0 to 2.2