Almost a decade ago, I was positive on household formation and new home sales in the 2020s due to demographics.
Census 2017 materially over-predicted births, materially under-predicted deaths (mainly for non-elderly adults), and somewhat over-predicted net international migration (NIM) for each of the last several years.
In 2020, the Census Bureau had four immigration alternatives: main, low, high – and no immigration.
Using recently released data for 2022 – see Net Immigration and Household Formation – we can compare the various 2020 projections for 2022 with 2022 actuals.
2022 Actual: 333,287,557
2020 Census Main: 337,342,000
2020 Census Low: 334,289,000
2020 Census High: 341,921,000
2020 Census None: 328,183,000
So, the actual was less than the low immigration projections from 3 years ago, although immigration was somewhat above housing economist Tom Lawler’s projections last year. It is important to continually adjust our outlook based on updated data!