Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January
A brief excerpt: And here is a graph comparing the YoY change in the NAR median prices vs the Case-Shiller National Index (the median is distorted by the mix of homes sold, and also lagged since this is for closing prices).
The YoY change in the median price peaked at 25.2% in May 2021 and has now slowed to 3.5%. In general, the NAR median price leads the Case-Shiller index by 2 to 3 months. Note that the median price usually starts falling seasonally in July, so the 2.1% decline in November in the median price was partially seasonal, however the 10.4% decline over the last five months has been much larger than the usual seasonal decline.
It is likely the median price will be down year-over-year in a few months – and Case-Shiller will follow. I’m now forecasting a 10%+ decline in nominal house prices, see: House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory.
On Friday, January 20th, the NAR will release existing home sales for December. This report will likely show another sharp year-over-year decline in sales for December, similar to the YoY decline in November. … If national sales decline by the same percent as last month, the NAR will report sales for December under 4.0 million SAAR – below the 4.01 million in May 2020 (pandemic low) and the lowest sales rate since 2010.There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/