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Could 6% to 7% 30-Year Mortgage Rates be the “New Normal”?


Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Could 6% to 7% 30-Year Mortgage Rates be the “New Normal”?

A brief excerpt: A key pitch, by real estate agents for home buyers right now, is that they will likely be able to refinance at a lower mortgage rate in a few years. The argument is that once the Federal Reserve has inflation back down to the 2% target, 30-mortgage rates will decline, perhaps to around 5% or lower. Of course, no one expects to see 3% mortgage rates without another crisis.

This graph is from Mortgage News Daily and shows the 30-year mortgage rate since 2010. Rates were mostly in the 3.5% to 5% range for over a decade prior to the pandemic, but it is possible – without a recession or a crisis – that 6% to 7% mortgage rates could be the new normal.There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at

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