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Comments on October Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices


Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Continued to Decline” to 9.2% year-over-year increase in October

Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for October were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “October” is a 3-month average of August, September and October closing prices. August closing prices include some contracts signed in June, so there is a significant lag to this data.

The MoM decrease in the Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% seasonally adjusted. This was the fourth consecutive MoM decrease, but smaller than the decrease over the previous three months.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in all of the Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. The largest monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in Las Vegas (-1.3%), Phoenix (-1.2%) and Dallas, Miami and San Francisco (all at -0.9%). San Francisco has fallen 11.0% from the peak in May 2022.

The October Case-Shiller report is mostly for contracts signed in the June through September period when 30-year mortgage rates were mostly in low-to-mid 5% range except in September when rates moved up to the low 6% range. The November report will mostly be for contracts signed in the July through October period – and will be impacted partially by the surge in rates in October.

The impact from higher rates in October and November will not show up significantly in the Case-Shiller index for a couple more months.

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