Comments on December Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index “Decline Continued” to 5.8% year-over-year increase in December

Excerpt: Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for December were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “December” is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices. October closing prices include some contracts signed in August, so there is a significant lag to this data.

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.35%. This was the sixth consecutive MoM decrease, and a slightly larger decrease than in November.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in all 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. The largest monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in Las Vegas (-1.5%), Phoenix (-1.3%) and Portland (-1.3%). San Francisco has fallen 12.7% from the peak in May 2022 and was the first Case-Shiller city with a year-over-year decline (-4.2% year-over-year). Seattle is now down too at -1.8% YoY.