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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Down 1.2% Year-over-year
A brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand).
The surge in household formation has been confirmed (mostly due to work-from-home), and this also led to the supposition that household formation would slow sharply in 2023 (mostly confirmed) and that asking rents might decrease in 2023 on a year-over-year basis (now flat year-over-year).
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Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through July 2023, except CoreLogic is through June and Apartment List is through August 2023.
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The CoreLogic measure is up 3.3% YoY in June, down from 3.4% in May, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.
The Zillow measure is up 3.6% YoY in July, down from 4.1% YoY in June, and down from a peak of 16.2% YoY in March 2022.
The ApartmentList measure is down 1.2% YoY as of August, down from -0.8% in June, and down from a peak of 18.1% YoY November 2021.
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With slow household formation, more supply coming on the market and a rising vacancy rate, rents will be under pressure all year. See: Forecast: Multifamily Starts will Decline SharplyThere is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/
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