Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
A brief excerpt: This is the first look at local markets in January. I’m tracking about 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.
Closed sales in January were mostly for contracts signed in November and December. Since 30-year fixed mortgage rates were over 6% for all of November and December closed sales were down significantly year-over-year in January, however, the impact was probably not as severe as for closed sales in December (rates were the highest in October and November 2022 when contracts were signed for closing in December)..
Median sales prices for single family homes were down 2.3% year-over year (YoY) in Las Vegas, and down 3.5% YoY in San Diego and up 0.4% YoY in the Northwest (Seattle).
In January, sales were down 35.9%. In December, these same markets were down 42.1% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
This is a smaller YoY decline than in December for these early reporting markets. The early data suggests NAR reported sales will rebound in January to the mid-4 million range (Seasonally adjusted annual rate) from 4.02 million SAAR in December.
This will still be a significant YoY decline, and the 17th consecutive month with a YoY decline.
Note: Even if existing home sales activity bottomed in December, there are usually two bottoms for housing – the first for activity and the second for prices. See Has Housing “Bottomed”?
Many more local markets to come!There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/